Laval 1-0 Rouen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Rouen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rouen make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Final. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rouen have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rouen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Laval against 1.00 for Rouen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Rouen in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Laval, 0 for Rouen and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.45 xG and Rouen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.000 / defence 1.081 | Rouen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.253. Data: 68 Laval games / 0 Rouen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Rouen 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Rouen | Competition: Ligue 2, Final | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Laval 1.45 / Rouen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.000 / def 1.081 | Rouen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Laval (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rouen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Rouen kick off?
Laval vs Rouen kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Rouen?
Laval 1 - 0 Rouen.
Where is Laval vs Rouen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Rouen part of?
Laval vs Rouen is a Final fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Rouen?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 42% chance of winning, Rouen a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Rouen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Laval and Rouen will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Rouen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rouen?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 1 | Rouen 0W.
What form are Laval and Rouen in?
Laval (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Rouen (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.00) and Rouen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rouen's attack (0.85x) against Laval's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.44
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Laval xG
Total xG
2.60
1.15
Rouen xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Rouen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Laval and Rouen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Laval and 1.15 for Rouen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Rouen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Laval come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rouen sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rouen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Laval against 1.00 for Rouen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rouen are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Laval have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rouen in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Rouen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Rouen in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Rouen have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Laval
1
Draws
0
Rouen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rouen?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 1, Rouen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Rouen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Laval 1-0 Rouen.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Rouen?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Rouen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Rouen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Laval's games and 100% of Rouen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Rouen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Laval's recent games and 0% of Rouen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Rouen tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rouen in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Rouen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Rouen 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Final, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.45 xG and Rouen 1.15 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rouen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Rouen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 42% | Draw 29% | Rouen 28%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 0%, Rouen 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.00 PPG, Rouen 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rouen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.