Laval 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Le Basser plays host to Laval versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
PAU (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAU have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Laval, 2.10 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Laval winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 44% versus PAU 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 51% | PAU 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.25 xG and PAU 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.856 / defence 1.007 | PAU attack 1.199 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.124. Data: 55 Laval games / 55 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 27% | PAU 39%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Laval 40% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 34% | Draw 27% | PAU 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Laval 1.25 / PAU 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.856 / def 1.007 | PAU attack 1.199 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.36
PAU xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs PAU kick off?
Laval vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs PAU?
Laval 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Laval vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs PAU part of?
Laval vs PAU is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 34% chance of winning, PAU a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Laval and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Laval and PAU in?
Laval (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. PAU (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Laval's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against PAU's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.20x) against Laval's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.66
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Laval xG
Total xG
2.60
1.36
PAU xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
9%
11.50
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Laval and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Laval and 1.36 for PAU, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Laval's recent record stands at 24W 7D 24L from 55 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 19L across 55 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Laval against 1.38 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Laval have managed 14W 3D 10L from 27 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.29 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and PAU in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 24W 7D 24L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or PAU away?
Laval's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.67 PPG; PAU away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Laval or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
2
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, PAU have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Laval 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Laval and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 52%, PAU 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Laval) and 44% (PAU).
On the defensive side: PAU in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Laval's recent matches and 56% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Laval's recent games and 44% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and PAU tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval and PAU finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.25 xG and PAU 1.36 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 1.20 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 34% | Draw 27% | PAU 39%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 51%, PAU 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.44 PPG, PAU 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.