Laval vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 0.90 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Laval register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Laval's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.40 xG and Guingamp 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.012 / defence 1.265 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 43 Laval games / 43 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 38% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 35%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 38% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Laval 1.40 / Guingamp 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.012 / def 1.265 | Guingamp attack 0.794 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Laval (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Guingamp xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 15 January 2027 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
Record (8 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 5W.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.01) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.74
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Laval xG
Total xG
2.72
1.32
Guingamp xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Laval and 1.32 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Laval have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 8W 16D 19L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 0.93 PPG, Guingamp on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 11L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.23 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 8W 16D 19L in their last 43 games (0.93 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Guingamp away?
Laval's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.95 PPG; Guingamp away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 57%, Guingamp 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Laval) and 62% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 38% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Laval's games and 62% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Laval's matches and 62% of Guingamp's.
Do Laval and Guingamp tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.