Laval 2-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Laval take on Boulogne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Laval and Boulogne meet at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Laval at Stade Francis Le Basser this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Laval, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Boulogne — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 43% versus Boulogne 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 37% | Boulogne 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.95 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.949 / defence 1.086 | Boulogne attack 0.689 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.255. Data: 67 Laval games / 33 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 32%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Boulogne 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Laval 60% | Boulogne 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Laval 0.95 / Boulogne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.949 / def 1.086 | Boulogne attack 0.689 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Boulogne xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Boulogne kick off?
Laval vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Boulogne?
Laval 2 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Laval vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Boulogne part of?
Laval vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 32% chance of winning, Boulogne a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Laval and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Laval and Boulogne in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.95) and Boulogne's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.69x) against Laval's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
36%
2.77
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Laval xG
Total xG
1.89
0.94
Boulogne xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Laval and 0.94 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Laval have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 15D 15L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Boulogne's form line: 10W 9D 16L from 35 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Laval against 1.11 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Laval have posted 0.65 PPG from 17 outings (1W 8D 8L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 6W 6D 5L from 17 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boulogne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.03 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Boulogne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 5W 15D 15L in their last 35 games (0.86 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 0.65 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Laval
0
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Laval 2-1 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Boulogne?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 53%, Boulogne 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Laval) and 29% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Laval have failed to score in 47% of games; Boulogne in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Laval's recent matches and 41% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Laval's recent games and 29% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Boulogne tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Boulogne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Boulogne 2-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.95 xG and Boulogne 0.94 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Boulogne attack 0.69 / defence 0.83, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 32% | Draw 36% | Boulogne 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 37%, Boulogne 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Boulogne's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 0.86 PPG, Boulogne 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Boulogne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.