Guingamp 2-4 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Guingamp welcome Grenoble to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Grenoble have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Grenoble's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Grenoble and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 59% versus Grenoble 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Grenoble 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.85 xG and Grenoble 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.854 / defence 1.175 | Grenoble attack 0.806 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.007. Data: 56 Guingamp games / 56 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 30% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Grenoble 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Grenoble 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 30% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Guingamp 0.85 / Grenoble 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.854 / def 1.175 | Grenoble attack 0.806 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Grenoble xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Grenoble kick off?
Guingamp vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 January 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Guingamp 2 - 4 Grenoble.
Where is Guingamp vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Grenoble part of?
Guingamp vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 30% chance of winning, Grenoble a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Guingamp and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Grenoble (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.85) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
30%
3.31
34%
2.97
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.80
0.95
Grenoble xG
3.31
30%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.95 for Grenoble, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 19D 16L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 19W 14D 23L from 56 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.46 PPG, Grenoble on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 7W 7D 14L from 28 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.86 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grenoble in 29%.
Defensively: Grenoble in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 19D 16L in their last 56 games (1.46 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Grenoble away?
Guingamp's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Grenoble in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
7
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Guingamp 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Grenoble?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 64%, Grenoble 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 29% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 43%; Grenoble in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Guingamp's recent matches and 18% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 29% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Grenoble tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Guingamp 2-4 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.85 xG and Grenoble 0.95 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grenoble outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Grenoble attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 30% | Draw 34% | Grenoble 36%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Grenoble 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Grenoble's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Grenoble 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.