Guingamp 3-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Guingamp at 44%, yet in-form Dijon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Guingamp welcome Dijon to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's away record: 2W 0D 5L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dijon's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dijon trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 62% versus Dijon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Dijon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.40 xG and Dijon 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.200 / defence 1.454 | Dijon attack 0.781 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 0.975. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Guingamp games / 16 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 44% | Draw 27% | Dijon 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Dijon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dijon (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 86% | Dijon 43% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 44% | Draw 27% | Dijon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.40 / Dijon 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.200 / def 1.454 | Dijon attack 0.781 / def 1.282 | league avg home 0.911 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dijon xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dijon kick off?
Guingamp vs Dijon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Guingamp 3 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Guingamp vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dijon part of?
Guingamp vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 44% chance of winning, Dijon a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.20x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.76
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.51
1.11
Dijon xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.11 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 6D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (6W 1D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.12 PPG, Dijon on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.06 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Dijon have gone 6W 1D 9L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dijon away?
Guingamp's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.14 PPG; Dijon away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dijon?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 86%, Dijon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 43% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Dijon in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Guingamp's games and 43% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Dijon tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Dijon in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Dijon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Dijon 3-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.40 xG and Dijon 1.11 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dijon outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 1.45 against Dijon attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 44% | Draw 27% | Dijon 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Dijon 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Dijon's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.12 PPG, Dijon 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.