Guingamp 0-4 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade du Roudourou — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Guingamp's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Annecy's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Guingamp 50% | Annecy 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 60% | Annecy 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.33 xG and Annecy 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.086 / defence 0.835 | Annecy attack 0.757 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.115. Data: 48 Guingamp games / 10 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 29% | Annecy 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 5.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 60% | Annecy 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 52% | Draw 29% | Annecy 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Guingamp 1.33 / Annecy 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.086 / def 0.835 | Annecy attack 0.757 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Annecy xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Annecy kick off?
Guingamp vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Guingamp 0 - 4 Annecy.
Where is Guingamp vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Annecy part of?
Guingamp vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 52% chance of winning, Annecy a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Guingamp and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.09) and Annecy's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.76x) against Guingamp's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.51
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.03
0.70
Annecy xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.70 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 3D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 20%.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Annecy in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Annecy have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Annecy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.60 PPG; Annecy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Annecy in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Annecy 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Guingamp) and 20% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 20% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Annecy in 40%; Guingamp have failed to score in 40% of games; Annecy in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 20% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 20% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Annecy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Annecy in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Guingamp 0-4 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.33 xG and Annecy 0.70 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 0.70 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Annecy attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 52% | Draw 29% | Annecy 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 60%, Annecy 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.