Guingamp 0-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Annecy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 4–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 55% versus Annecy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Annecy 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.080 / defence 1.132 | Annecy attack 0.857 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.208. Data: 49 Guingamp games / 49 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 31%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 60% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Guingamp 1.41 / Annecy 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.080 / def 1.132 | Annecy attack 0.857 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Annecy xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Annecy kick off?
Guingamp vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Guingamp 0 - 3 Annecy.
Where is Guingamp vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Annecy part of?
Guingamp vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Guingamp and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 2 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.08) and Annecy's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (0.86x) against Guingamp's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.80
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
Annecy xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.17 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 49 games, going 22W 9D 18L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (19W 13D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Guingamp against 1.43 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 11W 6D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 9D 18L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Annecy have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Annecy away?
Guingamp's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.62 PPG; Annecy away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Annecy 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Guingamp) and 42% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Guingamp's recent games and 42% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Annecy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Annecy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Guingamp 0-3 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Annecy attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 42% | Draw 26% | Annecy 31%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Annecy 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.53 PPG, Annecy 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.