Guingamp 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Amiens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 47% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 46% | Amiens 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.11 xG and Amiens 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.062 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.910 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Data: 68 Guingamp games / 68 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Amiens 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 1.11 / Amiens 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.062 / def 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.910 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Amiens xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Amiens a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.25
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.18
1.07
Amiens xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.07 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 68 games, going 26W 20D 22L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (23W 20D 25L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Amiens on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 12W 9D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.18 points per game from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 26W 20D 22L in their last 68 games (1.44 PPG), while Amiens have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.36 PPG; Amiens away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Amiens in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Amiens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 46%, Amiens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 39% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guingamp's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 39% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Amiens in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 31, as Guingamp and Amiens drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.11 xG and Amiens 1.07 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 31% | Amiens 33%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 46%, Amiens 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Amiens 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.