Dunkerque 0-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dunkerque and Toulouse meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dunkerque have collected 0.38 PPG across 8 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Toulouse (all games): 6W 2D 0L across 8 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 2.12 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.38). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 38% | Toulouse 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.65 xG and Toulouse 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.721 / defence 1.209 | Toulouse attack 1.259 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 0.830 / away 1.059. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Dunkerque games / 8 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 11% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 58%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 9.09 | Draw 3.23 | Toulouse 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (58%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 50% | Toulouse 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 11% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 41% | xG Dunkerque 0.65 / Toulouse 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.721 / def 1.209 | Toulouse attack 1.259 / def 1.080 | league avg home 0.830 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Toulouse xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Toulouse kick off?
Dunkerque vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Toulouse?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Dunkerque vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Toulouse part of?
Dunkerque vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 11% chance of winning, Toulouse a 58% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Dunkerque and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Toulouse in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 6W-2D-0L in 8 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.72) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.26x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
11%
8.74
31%
3.22
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.26
1.61
Toulouse xG
8.74
11%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
2%
43.86
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 16.8 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.61 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 0W 3D 5L from 8 games, a 0.38 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 0L across 8 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 2.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 6W 2D 0L in their last 8 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.50 PPG; Toulouse away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Toulouse in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dunkerque
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2022, when Toulouse 2-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 50%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dunkerque) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 50%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dunkerque's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Toulouse tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.65 xG and Toulouse 1.61 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Toulouse attack 1.26 / defence 1.08, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 11% | Draw 31% | Toulouse 58%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Toulouse 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.