Dunkerque 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees PAU travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dunkerque 1.10 PPG, PAU 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dunkerque, 0 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Dunkerque winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
PAU in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 37% versus PAU 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dunkerque 30% | PAU 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.02 xG and PAU 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.856 / defence 1.012 | PAU attack 0.719 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Dunkerque games / 27 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 43% | Draw 33% | PAU 24%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | PAU 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — PAU's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 30% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 43% | Draw 33% | PAU 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Dunkerque 1.02 / PAU 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.856 / def 1.012 | PAU attack 0.719 / def 1.205 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.69
PAU xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs PAU kick off?
Dunkerque vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Dunkerque 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Dunkerque vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs PAU part of?
Dunkerque vs PAU is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 43% chance of winning, PAU a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Dunkerque and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 0W.
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.86x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.02
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.72
0.69
PAU xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.12
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.69 for PAU, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Dunkerque have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 6D 14L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 11W 5D 11L from 27 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dunkerque have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, PAU have gone 2W 4D 7L from 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and PAU in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while PAU have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or PAU away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.23 PPG; PAU away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, PAU in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting PAU specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Dunkerque
2
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 6, PAU have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Dunkerque 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and PAU?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches.
PAU see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 31%, PAU 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Dunkerque and 38% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dunkerque have failed to score in 46% of games; PAU in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 46% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Dunkerque's recent games and 38% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.02 xG and PAU 0.69 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 43% | Draw 33% | PAU 24%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 30%, PAU 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Dunkerque winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dunkerque (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.