Dijon 1-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dijon at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at Stade Gaston-Gérard: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Dijon against 1.20 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dijon 0W, Quevilly 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 50% versus Quevilly 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 50% | Quevilly 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.50 xG and Quevilly 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.069 / defence 1.330 | Quevilly attack 0.821 / defence 1.433. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.060. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.433 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Dijon games / 20 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 3.45. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 60% | Quevilly 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Dijon 1.50 / Quevilly 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.069 / def 1.330 | Quevilly attack 0.821 / def 1.433 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Dijon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Quevilly xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Quevilly kick off?
Dijon vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Quevilly?
Dijon 1 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Dijon vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Quevilly part of?
Dijon vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dijon and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Dijon and Quevilly in?
Dijon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.07) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.82x) against Dijon's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.91
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.66
1.16
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Dijon and 1.16 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 8W 2D 10L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Dijon against 1.20 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 8W 2D 10L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Quevilly away?
Dijon's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.40 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dijon
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Quevilly 2-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 60%, Quevilly 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dijon) and 60% (Quevilly). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dijon's games and 50% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dijon's matches and 60% of Quevilly's.
Do Dijon and Quevilly tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Quevilly 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Quevilly 1-0 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.50 xG and Quevilly 1.16 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.07 / defence 1.33 against Quevilly attack 0.82 / defence 1.43, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 50%, Quevilly 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.30 PPG, Quevilly 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dijon win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.