Dijon 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Metz at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Metz at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Metz have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Metz are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dijon have won 1, Metz 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dijon in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 51% versus Metz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 52% | Metz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.08 xG and Metz 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.956 / defence 1.135 | Metz attack 1.295 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Metz have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Dijon games / 23 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 27% | Metz 47%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Metz 2.13. Metz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Metz at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Dijon 30% | Metz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 26% | Draw 27% | Metz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dijon 1.08 / Metz 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.956 / def 1.135 | Metz attack 1.295 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Metz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Metz xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Metz kick off?
Dijon vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Metz?
Dijon 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Dijon vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Metz part of?
Dijon vs Metz is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 26% chance of winning, Metz a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dijon and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 0 | Metz 0W.
What form are Dijon and Metz in?
Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Metz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dijon's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
26%
3.87
27%
3.72
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.62
1.54
Metz xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dijon and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dijon and 1.54 for Metz, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon's recent record stands at 18W 14D 29L from 61 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 25L across 61 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.11 PPG, Metz on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dijon have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Metz in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 18W 14D 29L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Metz have gone 16W 20D 25L in their last 61 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Metz away?
Dijon's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.43 PPG; Metz away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Metz?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Metz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Dijon 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Metz?
Dijon have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 43%, Metz 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dijon) and 47% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Dijon have failed to score in 33% of games; Metz in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dijon's recent matches and 43% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dijon's recent games and 47% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Metz tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Metz in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dijon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 24, as Dijon and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.08 xG and Metz 1.54 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Metz attack 1.29 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 26% | Draw 27% | Metz 47%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 52%, Metz 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.11 PPG, Metz 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.