Concarneau 0-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bastia travel to Stade du Roudourou to take on Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.193 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: built from Concarneau's last 0 games and Bastia's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.24 | Draw 4.04 | Bastia 2.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Concarneau 0 games, Bastia 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 1 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Concarneau 1.27 / Bastia 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bastia attack 1.193 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Bastia xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Concarneau vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Concarneau vs Bastia kick off?
Concarneau vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Bastia?
Concarneau 0 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Concarneau vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Concarneau vs Bastia part of?
Concarneau vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 1) (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 31% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Concarneau and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Concarneau vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Concarneau's last 0 games and Bastia's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
31%
3.24
25%
4.04
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.83
1.57
Bastia xG
3.24
31%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.56
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Concarneau vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.57 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Pre-Season
Bastia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Concarneau (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Concarneau
Pre-Season
Bastia
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
1
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Concarneau vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Bastia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Concarneau have won 0, Bastia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 April 2024: Bastia 2-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Concarneau's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 1, as Concarneau and Bastia drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.57 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Concarneau fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bastia attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 31% | Draw 25% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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