Clermont Foot 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel-Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Clermont Foot are significantly better at Stade Gabriel-Montpied than their overall form suggests.
Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.00 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 43% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.626 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.785 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.061. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Clermont Foot games / 65 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 32% | Amiens 29%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Amiens 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Amiens 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 32% | Amiens 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Clermont Foot 0.99 / Amiens 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.626 / def 0.999 | Amiens attack 0.785 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Amiens xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Amiens kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Amiens part of?
Clermont Foot vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 38% chance of winning, Amiens a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Clermont Foot and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Amiens in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.63) and Amiens's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.79x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.82
0.83
Amiens xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 13.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.83 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Clermont Foot come into this having played 61 games, going 11W 18D 32L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.26 PPG from 61 outings (19W 20D 22L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 12D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Amiens in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 18D 32L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 20D 22L in their last 61 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.90 PPG; Amiens away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Amiens in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Amiens have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Amiens 4-3 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 50%, Amiens 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Clermont Foot) and 43% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 47% of games; Amiens in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 40% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 43% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Amiens tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Amiens 0.83 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.63 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 32% | Amiens 29%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.