Caen 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 37 as Caen welcome Quevilly to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Quevilly's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Caen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Caen, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Caen in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Quevilly 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 42% | Quevilly 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.53 xG and Quevilly 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.268 / defence 1.075 | Quevilly attack 0.728 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 0.944 / away 1.062. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Caen games / 36 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Quevilly 5.26. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Caen 1.53 / Quevilly 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.268 / def 1.075 | Quevilly attack 0.728 / def 1.278 | league avg home 0.944 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Caen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Quevilly xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Quevilly kick off?
Caen vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Caen 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Caen vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Quevilly part of?
Caen vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 53% chance of winning, Quevilly a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Caen and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Caen and Quevilly in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.27) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.62
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Caen xG
Total xG
2.36
0.83
Quevilly xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
23.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Caen and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Caen and 0.83 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Caen have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 12W 11D 13L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Quevilly's form line: 9W 10D 17L from 36 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.31 PPG, Quevilly on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 5W 3D 10L from 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.83 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 12W 11D 13L in their last 36 games (1.31 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Quevilly away?
Caen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.50 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 50%, Quevilly 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Caen) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Caen's recent matches and 39% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Caen's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Quevilly tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.53 xG and Quevilly 0.83 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Quevilly landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against Quevilly attack 0.73 / defence 1.28, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 53% | Draw 28% | Quevilly 19%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 42%, Quevilly 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.31 PPG, Quevilly 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.