Caen 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 games at Stade Michel d'Ornano this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Paris FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Caen against 1.10 for Paris FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 47% versus Paris FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Caen 40% | Paris FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.944 / defence 1.388 | Paris FC attack 0.847 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Caen games / 15 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Paris FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Paris FC 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Caen 1.06 / Paris FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.944 / def 1.388 | Paris FC attack 0.847 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Paris FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Paris FC kick off?
Caen vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Caen 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Caen vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Paris FC part of?
Caen vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 33% chance of winning, Paris FC a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Caen and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Paris FC in?
Caen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.94) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.85x) against Caen's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.47
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Caen xG
Total xG
2.23
1.17
Paris FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Caen and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Caen and 1.17 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Caen have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 4W 5D 6L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 7W 3D 5L from 15 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Caen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 4W 0D 4L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 0.88 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Caen or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Paris FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Paris FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Caen
1
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Paris FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2025, when Paris FC 4-2 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 50%, Paris FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Caen) and 38% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 38%; Paris FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Caen's recent matches and 25% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Caen's recent games and 38% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Paris FC tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.94 / defence 1.39 against Paris FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 33% | Draw 29% | Paris FC 38%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 40%, Paris FC 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.