Caen 1-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Caen at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Caen's 2.00 PPG return is 1.75 points per game ahead of Nancy's 0.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Nancy half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Caen 33% | Nancy 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 67% | Nancy 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.29 xG and Nancy 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.370 / defence 1.100 | Nancy attack 0.822 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 1.255. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Caen games / 4 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 36% | Draw 35% | Nancy 29%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Nancy 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Caen 33% | Nancy 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 36% | Draw 35% | Nancy 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Caen 1.29 / Nancy 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.370 / def 1.100 | Nancy attack 0.822 / def 1.322 | league avg home 0.713 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Caen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Nancy xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Nancy kick off?
Caen vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Nancy?
Caen 1 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Caen vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Nancy part of?
Caen vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 36% chance of winning, Nancy a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Caen and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Nancy in?
Caen (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L. Nancy (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Caen's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Nancy's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.82x) against Caen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
36%
2.76
35%
2.84
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Caen xG
Total xG
2.43
1.14
Nancy xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Caen and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Caen and 1.14 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Caen come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Nancy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Nancy in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Nancy have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Caen or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Nancy in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Caen
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Caen have won 1, Nancy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2022, when Nancy 1-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Nancy?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Caen) and 33% (Nancy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Caen) and 33% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Nancy in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Caen's recent matches and 33% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Caen's recent games and 33% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Nancy tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Nancy in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Nancy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Nancy 1-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.29 xG and Nancy 1.14 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nancy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.37 / defence 1.10 against Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 36% | Draw 35% | Nancy 29%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 67%, Nancy 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Caen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Caen managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nancy conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.