Caen 4-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 41%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Caen vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Guingamp are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 49% versus Guingamp 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 39% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.25 xG and Guingamp 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.109 / defence 0.857 | Guingamp attack 1.177 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.043. Data: 41 Caen games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 31%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 50% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Caen 1.25 / Guingamp 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.109 / def 0.857 | Guingamp attack 1.177 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Caen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Guingamp kick off?
Caen vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Caen 4 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Caen vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Guingamp part of?
Caen vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Caen and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Caen and Guingamp in?
Caen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Guingamp (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.11) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.18x) against Caen's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.54
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Caen xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Guingamp xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Caen and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Caen and 1.05 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Caen have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 12D 14L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 17W 14D 10L from 41 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Caen against 1.59 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 7W 7D 6L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.41 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Guingamp away?
Caen's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.65 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Guingamp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 45%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Caen) and 45% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Caen's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Caen's recent games and 45% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Guingamp tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Caen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Guingamp 4-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.25 xG and Guingamp 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.11 / defence 0.86 against Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 41% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 31%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 39%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.39 PPG, Guingamp 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.