Caen 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Concarneau meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Caen, 0 for Concarneau and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 53% versus Concarneau 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 53% | Concarneau 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.081 / defence 0.934 | Concarneau attack 0.846 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Data: 57 Caen games / 19 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Concarneau 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Caen 50% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Caen 1.25 / Concarneau 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.081 / def 0.934 | Concarneau attack 0.846 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Caen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Concarneau xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Concarneau kick off?
Caen vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Concarneau?
Caen 1 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Caen vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Concarneau part of?
Caen vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 44% chance of winning, Concarneau a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Caen and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 1W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are Caen and Concarneau in?
Caen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Concarneau (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Caen's attack rating (1.08) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.85x) against Caen's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.30
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Caen xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Concarneau xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Caen and 0.91 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Caen have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 7W 5D 7L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 6W 4D 9L from 19 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Caen against 1.16 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.16 PPG overall record — Concarneau travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Caen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Concarneau away?
Caen's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.56 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Caen or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Concarneau in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Caen
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Caen 1-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Concarneau?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Caen) and 22% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Caen) and 33% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Concarneau in 44%; Concarneau in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Caen's recent matches and 22% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Caen's recent games and 33% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Concarneau tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Caen edge out Concarneau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Concarneau 1-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.25 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Concarneau landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Concarneau attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 44% | Draw 30% | Concarneau 26%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 53%, Concarneau 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.37 PPG, Concarneau 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.