Caen 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Caen host Amiens at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Caen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Amiens have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Caen at 2.00 PPG versus Amiens's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Caen, 0 for Amiens and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 50% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 44% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.85 xG and Amiens 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 1.363 / defence 1.126 | Amiens attack 0.836 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.970. Caen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Caen games / 32 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 59% | Draw 24% | Amiens 17%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Amiens 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Caen (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 59% | Draw 24% | Amiens 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Caen 1.85 / Amiens 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 1.363 / def 1.126 | Amiens attack 0.836 / def 1.397 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Caen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Amiens xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Amiens kick off?
Caen vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Amiens?
Caen 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Caen vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Amiens part of?
Caen vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 59% chance of winning, Amiens a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Caen and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Caen and Amiens in?
Caen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Caen's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.12
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Caen xG
Total xG
2.77
0.91
Amiens xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
37.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Caen and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Caen and 0.91 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Caen have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 12W 9D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 9W 14D 9L from 32 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.41 PPG, Amiens on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (7W 1D 7L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 8D 5L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.22 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Amiens in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 12W 9D 11L in their last 32 games (1.41 PPG), while Amiens have gone 9W 14D 9L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Amiens away?
Caen's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.47 PPG; Amiens away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Caen or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Amiens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Caen
3
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 4, Amiens have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Amiens 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Amiens?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 47%, Amiens 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Caen) and 27% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Caen have failed to score in 27% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Caen's recent matches and 53% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Caen's recent games and 27% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Amiens tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Amiens in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.85 xG and Amiens 0.91 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Caen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 1.36 / defence 1.13 against Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 1.40, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 59% | Draw 24% | Amiens 17%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 44%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.41 PPG, Amiens 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.