Boulogne vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Boulogne take on Sochaux.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sochaux make the trip to to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Boulogne have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne's home record at : 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Boulogne are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sochaux are 0.75 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.25 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Boulogne — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Boulogne 25% | Sochaux 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Boulogne 0% | Sochaux 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 0.92 xG and Sochaux 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.898 / defence 0.981 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Boulogne games / 4 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 36% | Draw 38% | Sochaux 26%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Sochaux 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Sochaux's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 50% | Sochaux 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 36% | Draw 38% | Sochaux 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 33% | xG Boulogne 0.92 / Sochaux 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.898 / def 0.981 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Sochaux xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Sochaux kick off?
Boulogne vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Sochaux part of?
Boulogne vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 36% chance of winning, Sochaux a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Boulogne and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Sochaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Sochaux in?
Boulogne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Sochaux (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.59x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
38%
2.63
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Boulogne xG
Total xG
1.65
0.73
Sochaux xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 14.1 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Boulogne and 0.73 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boulogne's recent record stands at 0W 3D 1L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boulogne heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Boulogne have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Sochaux in 0%.
Defensively: Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Sochaux in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Boulogne or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sochaux in 75%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Boulogne) and 0% (Sochaux) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Boulogne and 25% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Boulogne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sochaux in 75%; Boulogne have failed to score in 75% of games; Sochaux in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Boulogne's recent matches and 0% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boulogne vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Boulogne's recent games and 25% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Sochaux tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.