Bordeaux 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Bordeaux welcome Niort to Stade Matmut-Atlantique. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Niort have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.00 (Niort). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Niort trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 65% versus Niort 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 65% | Niort 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.83 xG and Niort 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.738 / defence 1.003 | Niort attack 1.089 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 0.986. Bordeaux's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Bordeaux games / 40 Niort games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 27% | Draw 34% | Niort 40%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Niort 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Niort are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 40% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 27% | Draw 34% | Niort 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Bordeaux 0.83 / Niort 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.738 / def 1.003 | Niort attack 1.089 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.061 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Niort (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Niort xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Niort kick off?
Bordeaux vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Niort?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Bordeaux vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Niort part of?
Bordeaux vs Niort is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 27% chance of winning, Niort a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bordeaux and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Niort in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Niort (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 0.74x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
27%
3.77
34%
2.97
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.90
1.08
Niort xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
17%
5.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.08 for Niort, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 7W 14D 19L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Niort's form line: 13W 10D 17L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 0.88 PPG, Niort on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 0.85 PPG from 20 outings (3W 8D 9L).
On the road, Niort have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.05 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Niort in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 7W 14D 19L in their last 40 games (0.88 PPG), while Niort have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Niort away?
Niort's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 0.85 PPG; Niort away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Niort in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Niort 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 65%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bordeaux) and 45% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux have failed to score in 35% of games; Niort in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bordeaux's recent games and 45% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Niort tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Niort in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.83 xG and Niort 1.08 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Niort landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Niort attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 27% | Draw 34% | Niort 40%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bordeaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 65%, Niort 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 0.88 PPG, Niort 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.