Bastia 0-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Quevilly have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bastia have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Quevilly in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bastia lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Quevilly 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | Quevilly 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.05 xG and Quevilly 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.936 / defence 0.686 | Quevilly attack 0.834 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Bastia's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Bastia games / 60 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 21%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Quevilly 4.76. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.66 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 10% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 46% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 30% | xG Bastia 1.05 / Quevilly 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.936 / def 0.686 | Quevilly attack 0.834 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Bastia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Quevilly xG
30%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Quevilly kick off?
Bastia vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Bastia 0 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Bastia vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Quevilly part of?
Bastia vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 46% chance of winning, Quevilly a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Bastia and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.94) and Quevilly's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.83x) against Bastia's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.4%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
46%
2.18
33%
3.01
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.66
0.61
Quevilly xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
54%
1.83
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.0 | 12.2 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bastia and 0.61 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 20W 20D 20L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 25L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bastia against 1.22 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 12W 12D 5L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 8W 5D 16L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.02 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 20W 20D 20L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Quevilly away?
Bastia's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.66 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bastia or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Quevilly in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 3-0 on 8 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Quevilly?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Bastia) and 28% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Bastia and 38% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 31% of games; Quevilly in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bastia's recent matches and 28% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Bastia's recent games and 38% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Quevilly tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Bastia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Bastia 0-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.05 xG and Quevilly 0.61 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bastia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 0.69 against Quevilly attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 46% | Draw 33% | Quevilly 21%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Quevilly 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.33 PPG, Quevilly 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.