Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Armand Cesari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia at Stade Armand Cesari this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.20 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bastia, 3 for Estac Troyes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bastia in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 40% versus Estac Troyes 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 31% | Estac Troyes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.84 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.711 / defence 1.034 | Estac Troyes attack 0.840 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.217. Bastia's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Bastia games / 56 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Estac Troyes 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 40% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Bastia 0.84 / Estac Troyes 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.711 / def 1.034 | Estac Troyes attack 0.840 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Bastia 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Bastia vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Estac Troyes part of?
Bastia vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 28% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bastia and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 3W.
What form are Bastia and Estac Troyes in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.71) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
28%
3.52
32%
3.17
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.90
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 15.8 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Bastia and 1.06 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 22D 19L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 25W 10D 20L from 55 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.16 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.54 PPG from 26 outings (10W 10D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 9W 5D 12L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.27 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Estac Troyes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 22D 19L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 25W 10D 20L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Estac Troyes away?
Bastia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.54 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Bastia or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Estac Troyes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bastia) and 46% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 35%; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Estac Troyes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bastia's recent matches and 42% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bastia's recent games and 46% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.84 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 28% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 40%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 31%, Estac Troyes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.16 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.