Bastia 1-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dijon make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia at Stade Armand-Césari this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dijon have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bastia against 1.60 for Dijon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 1 for Dijon and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dijon half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 48% versus Dijon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 36% | Dijon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.04 xG and Dijon 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.960 / defence 1.098 | Dijon attack 1.030 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.141. Data: 44 Bastia games / 44 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 29% | Dijon 41%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 40% | Dijon 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 29% | Draw 29% | Dijon 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Bastia 1.04 / Dijon 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.960 / def 1.098 | Dijon attack 1.030 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Dijon (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Dijon xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dijon kick off?
Bastia vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dijon?
Bastia 1 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Bastia vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dijon part of?
Bastia vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 29% chance of winning, Dijon a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bastia and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Bastia and Dijon in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Dijon's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (1.03x) against Bastia's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.43
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.33
1.29
Dijon xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
15%
6.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bastia and 1.29 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 16D 16L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (16W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Bastia against 1.32 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 6W 11D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dijon in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Dijon have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dijon away?
Bastia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.38 PPG; Dijon away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dijon in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
2
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Bastia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Dijon 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Bastia) and 57% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 38% of games; Dijon in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 57% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Bastia's recent games and 57% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dijon tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Dijon in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Dijon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Dijon 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.04 xG and Dijon 1.29 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dijon landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Dijon attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 29% | Draw 29% | Dijon 41%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 36%, Dijon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dijon's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.18 PPG, Dijon 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.