Bastia 1-0 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Caen at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Armand-Césari, Bastia have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.20 PPG versus Caen's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bastia, 1 for Caen and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Caen trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Caen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 32% | Caen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.20 xG and Caen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.897 / defence 0.935 | Caen attack 0.915 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.040. Data: 53 Bastia games / 53 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Caen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Caen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Bastia 1.20 / Caen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.897 / def 0.935 | Caen attack 0.915 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Bastia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Caen xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Caen kick off?
Bastia vs Caen kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Caen?
Bastia 1 - 0 Caen.
Where is Bastia vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Caen part of?
Bastia vs Caen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 43% chance of winning, Caen a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bastia and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Caen 1W.
What form are Bastia and Caen in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Caen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.90) and Caen's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.38
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.09
0.89
Caen xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
8%
12.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bastia and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Bastia and 0.89 for Caen, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 19D 19L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen's form line: 19W 16D 18L from 53 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.21 PPG, Caen on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (8W 13D 5L).
On the road, Caen have gone 5W 11D 10L from 26 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.30 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Caen in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 15W 19D 19L in their last 53 games (1.21 PPG), while Caen have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Caen away?
Bastia's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.42 PPG; Caen away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bastia or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bastia's record when hosting Caen specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
5
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Caen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Caen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Caen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Bastia and 35% for Caen.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 35% of games; Caen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 54% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Bastia's recent games and 35% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Caen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Caen 1-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.20 xG and Caen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Caen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Caen attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 43% | Draw 30% | Caen 27%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 32%, Caen 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Caen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.21 PPG, Caen 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.