Bastia 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul-Lignon plays host to Bastia versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Paul-Lignon — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Paul-Lignon. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Amiens (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Amiens away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Amiens, who have claimed 4 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 4 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Amiens have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 30% | Amiens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.92 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.608 / defence 1.037 | Amiens attack 0.852 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.169. Bastia's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Bastia games / 62 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 30% | Draw 34% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Amiens 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 10% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 30% | Draw 34% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Bastia 0.92 / Amiens 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.608 / def 1.037 | Amiens attack 0.852 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Amiens xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Amiens kick off?
Bastia vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Bastia vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Bastia vs Amiens part of?
Bastia vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 30% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bastia and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
Record (9 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 4 | Amiens 4W.
What form are Bastia and Amiens in?
Bastia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Amiens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.85x) against Bastia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
30%
3.32
34%
2.98
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.95
1.03
Amiens xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bastia and 1.03 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 61 games, going 14W 26D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.03 PPG from 61 outings (18W 9D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Bastia against 1.03 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 11W 11D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (6W 4D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.11 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 26D 21L in their last 61 games (1.11 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 9D 34L in their last 61 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Amiens away?
Bastia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.47 PPG; Amiens away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Bastia or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Amiens in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bastia
5
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Amiens have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 43%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bastia) and 53% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Amiens in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bastia's recent games and 53% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Amiens tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Paul-Lignon, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.92 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.61 / defence 1.04 against Amiens attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 30% | Draw 34% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Amiens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.11 PPG, Amiens 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.