Annecy 0-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Quevilly at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Quevilly encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Annecy welcome Quevilly to Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Annecy at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Quevilly — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Quevilly have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Quevilly — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Annecy have won 2, Quevilly 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Annecy 2–1 Quevilly — a Annecy win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Annecy trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Quevilly trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Quevilly 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.08 xG and Quevilly 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.763 / defence 1.265 | Quevilly attack 1.386 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Annecy's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Quevilly have an above-average attack rating of 1.386, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Annecy's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Quevilly's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 64 games and Quevilly's last 64.

Result probabilities: Annecy 21% | Draw 23% | Quevilly 56%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 4.79 | Draw 4.42 | Quevilly 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Quevilly's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 70% (last 10 away games).

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