Annecy 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Le Havre travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Monday 15 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Le Havre's away record: 5W 5D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Le Havre's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Annecy's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 1 for Le Havre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 41% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 47% | Le Havre 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.66 xG and Le Havre 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.805 / defence 1.129 | Le Havre attack 1.008 / defence 0.630. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.091. Le Havre's defence strength of 0.630 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Annecy games / 72 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 19% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 50%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Le Havre 2.00. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Annecy's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Le Havre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 19% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Annecy 0.66 / Le Havre 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.805 / def 1.129 | Le Havre attack 1.008 / def 0.630 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Le Havre xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Le Havre kick off?
Annecy vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Le Havre?
Annecy 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Annecy vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Le Havre part of?
Annecy vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 19% chance of winning, Le Havre a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Annecy and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Annecy and Le Havre in?
Annecy (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.81x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
19%
5.17
31%
3.28
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.90
1.24
Le Havre xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.90
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
52%
1.93
Win to Nil
6%
17.90
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 18.6 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Annecy and 1.24 for Le Havre, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy's recent record stands at 9W 11D 14L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 1L across 34 games — 2.09 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 7W 4D 6L from 17 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 9W 7D 1L across 17 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.29 scored and 0.44 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 19W 14D 1L in their last 34 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.47 PPG; Le Havre away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Le Havre in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Le Havre?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Annecy 1-0 Le Havre.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 35%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Annecy and 24% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Le Havre in 53%; Annecy have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Annecy's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Annecy's recent games and 24% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Le Havre tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Le Havre 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.66 xG and Le Havre 1.24 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Le Havre attack 1.01 / defence 0.63, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 19% | Draw 31% | Le Havre 50%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 47%, Le Havre 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.