Annecy 3-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Grenoble travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports.
Grenoble — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grenoble's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 0.90 PPG, Grenoble 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Grenoble, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Annecy.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Grenoble have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Grenoble trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 49% versus Grenoble 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Grenoble 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.21 xG and Grenoble 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.836 / defence 0.915 | Grenoble attack 1.048 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.102. Data: 71 Annecy games / 71 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Grenoble 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Grenoble 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 1.21 / Grenoble 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.836 / def 0.915 | Grenoble attack 1.048 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Grenoble xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Grenoble kick off?
Annecy vs Grenoble kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Annecy 3 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Annecy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Grenoble part of?
Annecy vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Grenoble a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 3W.
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.84x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.50
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.26
1.06
Grenoble xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Annecy and 1.06 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 25W 19D 27L from 71 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Grenoble, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 26L across 71 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.32 PPG, Grenoble on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 10D 12L from 35 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grenoble's away record stands at 11W 7D 17L across 35 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 25W 19D 27L in their last 71 games (1.32 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 26W 19D 26L in their last 71 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Grenoble away?
Annecy's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.40 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Annecy or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Grenoble in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Grenoble runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Grenoble have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Grenoble 1-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 46%, Grenoble 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 51% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games; Grenoble in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Annecy's recent matches and 46% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 51% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Grenoble tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Grenoble.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Grenoble 3-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.21 xG and Grenoble 1.06 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Grenoble attack 1.05 / defence 0.99, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Grenoble 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.32 PPG, Grenoble 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Grenoble (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.