Annecy 3-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dunkerque make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.
Dunkerque's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dunkerque are 1.00 PPG clear of Annecy in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.243 | Dunkerque attack 0.861 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Data: 40 Annecy games / 2 Dunkerque games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Dunkerque 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 1.11 / Dunkerque 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.956 / def 1.243 | Dunkerque attack 0.861 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dunkerque xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dunkerque kick off?
Annecy vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Annecy 3 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Annecy vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Dunkerque part of?
Annecy vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.86x) against Annecy's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Dunkerque xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Annecy and 1.15 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Annecy have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dunkerque's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Dunkerque are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Annecy.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Dunkerque in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Annecy or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Annecy's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dunkerque 3-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Dunkerque attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Dunkerque 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.