Annecy 1-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Dijon travel to Parc des Sports d’Annecy to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports d’Annecy: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dijon — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dijon's away record: 0W 3D 0L from 3 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 0 for Dijon and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Dijon trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Annecy 67% and Dijon 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Dijon 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.45 xG and Dijon 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.052 / defence 0.866 | Dijon attack 0.897 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.178. Data: 40 Annecy games / 6 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 27% | Dijon 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Dijon 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 70% | Dijon 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Parc des Sports d’Annecy • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 27% | Dijon 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 1.45 / Dijon 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.052 / def 0.866 | Dijon attack 0.897 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Annecy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Dijon xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dijon kick off?
Annecy vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Parc des Sports d’Annecy.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dijon?
Annecy 1 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Annecy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports d’Annecy.
What competition is Annecy vs Dijon part of?
Annecy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 49% chance of winning, Dijon a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Annecy and Dijon in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.05) and Dijon's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.72
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Dijon xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Annecy and 0.92 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon's form line: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.33 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dijon in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Dijon have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Annecy or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Dijon runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
From 3 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Annecy at 67%, Dijon at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Annecy) and 33% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Annecy's games and 83% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Annecy's recent games and 33% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Dijon tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dijon in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dijon defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports d’Annecy, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.45 xG and Dijon 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Dijon attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 49% | Draw 27% | Dijon 24%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Dijon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Dijon 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Dijon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.