Annecy 1-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Angers travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Angers — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Angers's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Annecy) versus 1.80 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Annecy, 0 for Angers and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Angers in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 47% versus Angers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 53% | Angers 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.34 xG and Angers 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.944 / defence 1.128 | Angers attack 0.967 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.146. Data: 74 Annecy games / 36 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Angers 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 50% | Angers 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Annecy 1.34 / Angers 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.944 / def 1.128 | Angers attack 0.967 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Angers xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Angers kick off?
Annecy vs Angers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Angers?
Annecy 1 - 2 Angers.
Where is Annecy vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Angers part of?
Annecy vs Angers is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Angers a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Annecy and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Angers?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Angers 0W.
What form are Annecy and Angers in?
Annecy (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Angers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.94x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.67
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.59
1.25
Angers xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Annecy and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Annecy and 1.25 for Angers, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 23W 21D 30L from 74 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 38L across 74 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.22 PPG, Angers on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 14W 10D 13L from 37 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 7W 7D 23L across 37 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.18 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Angers in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 21D 30L in their last 74 games (1.22 PPG), while Angers have gone 23W 13D 38L in their last 74 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Angers away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; Angers away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Angers runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Angers?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Angers have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Annecy 1-2 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 51% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 35% of games; Angers in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 51% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Angers tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Angers in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.34 xG and Angers 1.25 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.94 / defence 1.13 against Angers attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 27% | Angers 34%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 53%, Angers 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.22 PPG, Angers 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.