Amiens 0-2 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Amiens at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valenciennes make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Valenciennes have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Valenciennes have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Amiens against 0.80 for Valenciennes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Amiens 2W, Valenciennes 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 49% versus Valenciennes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 41% | Valenciennes 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.35 xG and Valenciennes 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.875 / defence 1.059 | Valenciennes attack 0.825 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.067. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Amiens games / 69 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Valenciennes 3.85. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 50% | Valenciennes 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Amiens 1.35 / Valenciennes 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.875 / def 1.059 | Valenciennes attack 0.825 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Amiens (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Valenciennes xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Valenciennes kick off?
Amiens vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Amiens 0 - 2 Valenciennes.
Where is Amiens vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Valenciennes part of?
Amiens vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 46% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Amiens and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Valenciennes?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 1 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Amiens and Valenciennes in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.82x) against Amiens's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Valenciennes xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Amiens and 0.93 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 24D 25L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Valenciennes's form line: 17W 27D 25L from 69 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Amiens against 1.13 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (14W 9D 11L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 7W 12D 15L from 34 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.97 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 20W 24D 25L in their last 69 games (1.22 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 17W 27D 25L in their last 69 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Valenciennes away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Amiens or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 3-0 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Amiens
2
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Valenciennes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Valenciennes 0-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Valenciennes?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 41%, Valenciennes 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Amiens) and 32% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 29% of games; Valenciennes in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Amiens's recent matches and 47% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Amiens's recent games and 32% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valenciennes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.35 xG and Valenciennes 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Valenciennes outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Valenciennes attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 46% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 26%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Valenciennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 41%, Valenciennes 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valenciennes's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.22 PPG, Valenciennes 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valenciennes win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valenciennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.