Amiens 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Rodez.

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Analysis

Rodez make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Amiens have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Amiens have posted 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Rodez (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rodez's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Amiens against 1.60 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Amiens, 2 for Rodez and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Amiens 2–2 Rodez — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Rodez 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 34% | Rodez 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Amiens surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.13 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.836 / defence 0.861 | Rodez attack 1.255 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Rodez have an above-average attack rating of 1.255, which lifts their away xG to 1.16. Data: built from Amiens's last 65 games and Rodez's last 64.

Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 30% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.90 | Draw 3.37 | Rodez 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Amiens 50% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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