Amiens 1-3 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host RED Star FC 93 at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Amiens's home record at Stade de la Licorne: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour RED Star FC 93 — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Amiens, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 52% | RED Star FC 93 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.10 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.877 / defence 1.446 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.005 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.228. Data: 66 Amiens games / 65 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 21% | Draw 27% | RED Star FC 93 51%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | RED Star FC 93 1.96. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | RED Star FC 93 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 21% | Draw 27% | RED Star FC 93 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Amiens 1.10 / RED Star FC 93 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.877 / def 1.446 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.005 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.78
RED Star FC 93 xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Amiens 1 - 3 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 21% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Amiens and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and RED Star FC 93?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 2W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Amiens and RED Star FC 93 in?
Amiens (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.88x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
21%
4.66
27%
3.69
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.89
1.78
RED Star FC 93 xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
4%
27.77
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Amiens and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Amiens and 1.78 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 18W 10D 37L from 65 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 23W 20D 22L across 65 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 0.98 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 5D 15L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 10D 37L in their last 65 games (0.98 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 23W 20D 22L in their last 65 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Amiens's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.28 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Amiens or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and RED Star FC 93 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
0
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Amiens 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 53%, RED Star FC 93 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Amiens) and 47% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 31%; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Amiens's recent matches and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Amiens's recent games and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.10 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.78 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.88 / defence 1.45 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 21% | Draw 27% | RED Star FC 93 51%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 52%, RED Star FC 93 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 0.98 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.