Amiens 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and PAU meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
PAU have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, PAU have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Amiens, 2 for PAU and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 39% | PAU 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.06 xG and PAU 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.900 / defence 1.131 | PAU attack 0.843 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Data: 62 Amiens games / 63 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 34% | PAU 30%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | PAU 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | PAU 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 36% | Draw 34% | PAU 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Amiens 1.06 / PAU 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.900 / def 1.131 | PAU attack 0.843 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.96
PAU xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs PAU kick off?
Amiens vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs PAU?
Amiens 1 - 0 PAU.
Where is Amiens vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs PAU part of?
Amiens vs PAU is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 36% chance of winning, PAU a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 2W.
What form are Amiens and PAU in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.90) and PAU's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.84x) against Amiens's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
36%
2.79
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
PAU xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Amiens and 0.96 for PAU, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 18W 23D 21L from 62 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 27L across 62 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Amiens against 1.18 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 9D 10L from 31 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.95 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and PAU in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while PAU have gone 19W 16D 27L in their last 62 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or PAU away?
Amiens's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.45 PPG; PAU away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Amiens or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, PAU in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
1
Draws
5
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, PAU have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
PAU see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 42%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Amiens) and 39% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 32% of games; PAU in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out PAU 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat PAU 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.06 xG and PAU 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against PAU attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 36% | Draw 34% | PAU 30%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, PAU 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAU's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.24 PPG, PAU 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.