Toulouse 3-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Rennes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 12 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Rennes (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rennes have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Toulouse, 1.60 for Rennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rennes in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Rennes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Rennes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.75 xG and Rennes 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.079 / defence 1.066 | Rennes attack 0.970 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.300. Data: 22 Toulouse games / 60 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 28%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Rennes 3.57. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Rennes 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Toulouse 1.75 / Rennes 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.079 / def 1.066 | Rennes attack 0.970 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Rennes xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Rennes kick off?
Toulouse vs Rennes kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Toulouse 3 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Toulouse vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Rennes part of?
Toulouse vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 45% chance of winning, Rennes a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Toulouse and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rennes?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 0 | Rennes 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Rennes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.08x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rennes's attack (0.97x) against Toulouse's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.10
1.34
Rennes xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.34 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 31W 15D 14L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes's form line: 32W 10D 18L from 60 games, 1.77 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Toulouse against 1.77 for Rennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.21 PPG from 29 outings (19W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Toulouse are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rennes have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.05 scored and 1.08 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Rennes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 31W 15D 14L in their last 60 games (1.80 PPG), while Rennes have gone 32W 10D 18L in their last 60 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Rennes away?
Toulouse's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.21 PPG; Rennes away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rennes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
2
Draws
2
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Rennes?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Rennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Rennes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for Toulouse, 76% for Rennes — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 59% (Rennes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Toulouse's games and 76% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 59% of Rennes's.
Do Toulouse and Rennes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Rennes in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Rennes 3-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.75 xG and Rennes 1.34 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Rennes attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 45% | Draw 27% | Rennes 28%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 60%, Rennes 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rennes's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.80 PPG, Rennes 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.