Toulouse 0-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Toulouse face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Paris Saint Germain at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Toulouse, 3 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Toulouse 56% and Paris Saint Germain 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.03 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.795 / defence 1.012 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.611 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.309. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.611 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Toulouse games / 55 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 6.67 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Paris Saint Germain 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Toulouse 1.03 / Paris Saint Germain 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.795 / def 1.012 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.611 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 15% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 61% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (5 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 3W.
What form are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
15%
6.49
24%
4.16
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.17
2.13
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.49
15%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
12%
8.45
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
2%
54.79
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Toulouse and 2.13 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse come into this having played 55 games, going 18W 16D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.35 PPG from 55 outings (38W 15D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 9D 11L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.48 points per game from 27 outings (20W 7D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.53 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 69%.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 18W 16D 21L in their last 55 games (1.27 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 38W 15D 2L in their last 55 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.11 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 67%, Paris Saint Germain 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 56% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Toulouse's games and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Toulouse and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.03 xG and Paris Saint Germain 2.13 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.61 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 15% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 61%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 54%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.