Toulouse 0-2 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadium de Toulouse — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Monaco in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Monaco 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 59% | Monaco 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.43 xG and Monaco 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.092 / defence 1.203 | Monaco attack 1.219 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.425. Monaco have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 2.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Toulouse games / 51 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 22% | Monaco 52%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | Monaco 1.92. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 22% | Monaco 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Toulouse 1.43 / Monaco 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.092 / def 1.203 | Monaco attack 1.219 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Monaco (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Monaco xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Monaco kick off?
Toulouse vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Toulouse 0 - 2 Monaco.
Where is Toulouse vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Monaco part of?
Toulouse vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 26% chance of winning, Monaco a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Toulouse and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
26%
3.92
22%
4.46
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.52
2.09
Monaco xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
12%
8.09
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
3%
31.69
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Toulouse and 2.09 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 14D 10L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 27W 12D 12L from 51 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.86 PPG, Monaco on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (17W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Toulouse are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monaco have gone 12W 6D 7L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.76 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 games (1.86 PPG), while Monaco have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Monaco away?
Toulouse's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.28 PPG; Monaco away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Monaco in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Toulouse's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 56%, Monaco 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Toulouse) and 52% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Monaco in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Toulouse's games and 56% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Toulouse's matches and 52% of Monaco's.
Do Toulouse and Monaco tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Monaco in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Toulouse 0-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.43 xG and Monaco 2.09 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.09 / defence 1.20 against Monaco attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 26% | Draw 22% | Monaco 52%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 59%, Monaco 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.86 PPG, Monaco 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.