Toulouse 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lille at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.60 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Toulouse, 1 for Lille and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Lille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lille in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Lille 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.42 xG and Lille 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.115 / defence 1.180 | Lille attack 1.178 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.263. Data: 27 Toulouse games / 65 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 30% | Draw 25% | Lille 45%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Lille 2.22. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 30% | Draw 25% | Lille 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Toulouse 1.42 / Lille 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.115 / def 1.180 | Lille attack 1.178 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Lille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Lille xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 30% chance of winning, Lille a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Lille in?
Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 1.11x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
30%
3.31
25%
3.96
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.17
1.75
Lille xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
5%
19.14
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.75 for Lille, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 65 games, going 33W 15D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.55 PPG from 65 outings (27W 20D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.75 PPG, Lille on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 20W 7D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.38 points per game from 32 outings (12W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.49 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 33W 15D 17L in their last 65 games (1.75 PPG), while Lille have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Toulouse's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.09 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lille in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 56%, Lille 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Toulouse) and 53% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Toulouse's games and 62% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 53% of Lille's.
Do Toulouse and Lille tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lille in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 0-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.42 xG and Lille 1.75 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.11 / defence 1.18 against Lille attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 30% | Draw 25% | Lille 45%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 60%, Lille 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.75 PPG, Lille 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.