Toulouse 0-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Toulouse 1.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Clermont Foot trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Clermont Foot 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 62% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.39 xG and Clermont Foot 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.170 / defence 1.170 | Clermont Foot attack 0.847 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.270. Data: 25 Toulouse games / 63 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 70% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Toulouse 1.39 / Clermont Foot 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.170 / def 1.170 | Clermont Foot attack 0.847 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Toulouse vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Toulouse 0 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot part of?
Toulouse vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 38% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Toulouse and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 0W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Clermont Foot in?
Toulouse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
38%
2.65
30%
3.30
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.64
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.26 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 63 games, going 32W 15D 16L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.06 PPG from 63 outings (17W 16D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 20W 7D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Toulouse are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.10 points per game from 31 outings (9W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 32W 15D 16L in their last 63 games (1.76 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 16D 30L in their last 63 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Clermont Foot away?
Toulouse's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.16 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Toulouse won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 58%, Clermont Foot 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Toulouse) and 42% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Toulouse's recent matches and 42% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Toulouse's recent games and 42% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Toulouse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Toulouse 0-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.39 xG and Clermont Foot 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 38% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 62%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.