Saint Etienne 1-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Nice (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Saint Etienne face Nice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nice travel to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to take on Saint Etienne in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Saint Etienne stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nice — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Nice have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nice — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Nice have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Saint Etienne. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2024, ended Saint Etienne 0–8 Nice — a Nice win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Nice have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 5.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nice trading profile (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 39% versus Nice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 44% | Nice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.44 xG and Nice 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / defence 1.220 | Nice attack 1.122 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nice's projected output up. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 23 games and Nice's last 57.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.46 | Draw 3.91 | Nice 2.20. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Nice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Nice 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.44 / Nice 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.863 / def 1.220 | Nice attack 1.122 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Nice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Nice xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nice FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nice kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Saint Etienne 1 - 3 Nice.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nice part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nice is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 29% chance of winning, Nice a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Saint Etienne vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.86x the league average against Nice's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 23 games and Nice's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
29%
3.46
26%
3.91
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.27
1.83
Nice xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
5%
21.61
11%
9.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.83 for Nice, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 11D 23L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.72 PPG from 57 outings (27W 17D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.40 PPG, Nice on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 16W 5D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 29 away games (10W 10D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nice
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Nice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nice Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Nice in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 11D 23L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Nice have gone 27W 17D 13L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nice away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.83 PPG; Nice away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 29 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Sep 2024, when Nice won Nice 8-0 Saint Etienne.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Nice specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nice have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 May 2026: Nice 4-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 38%, Nice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Saint Etienne) and 48% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 28% of games; Nice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Nice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Nice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 59% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Nice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 48% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Nice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 72% of Nice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.44 xG and Nice 1.83 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nice outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Nice attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 26% | Nice 45%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 44%, Nice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.40 PPG, Nice 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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