Saint Etienne 1-4 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monaco make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Monaco (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Monaco are 0.70 PPG clear of Saint Etienne in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Monaco — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 67% versus Monaco 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 58% | Monaco 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Monaco 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.989 / defence 1.487 | Monaco attack 0.935 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.192. Data: 33 Saint Etienne games / 33 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 28% | Draw 25% | Monaco 47%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Monaco 2.13. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 70% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 28% | Draw 25% | Monaco 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 1.23 / Monaco 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.989 / def 1.487 | Monaco attack 0.935 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Monaco (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Monaco xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Monaco kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Monaco?
Saint Etienne 1 - 4 Monaco.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Monaco part of?
Saint Etienne vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 28% chance of winning, Monaco a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Monaco?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Monaco in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.99x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monaco's attack (0.94x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
28%
3.60
25%
3.92
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.88
1.66
Monaco xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.66 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 10D 16L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Monaco's form line: 16W 8D 9L from 33 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Monaco are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Saint Etienne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.55 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Monaco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Monaco in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 7W 10D 16L in their last 33 games (0.94 PPG), while Monaco have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Monaco away?
Monaco's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.06 PPG; Monaco away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Monaco in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Monaco have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 1-4 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monaco — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Monaco?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Monaco have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-3 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 75%, Monaco 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Saint Etienne) and 44% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Saint Etienne's games and 50% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Saint Etienne's matches and 44% of Monaco's.
Do Saint Etienne and Monaco tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Monaco in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Saint Etienne 1-4 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.23 xG and Monaco 1.66 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Monaco outscored their 1.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.99 / defence 1.49 against Monaco attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 28% | Draw 25% | Monaco 47%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 58%, Monaco 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Monaco's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.