Rennes 4-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rennes at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Ligue 1 appearances (2.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lyon have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Rennes — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lyon — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 33% versus Lyon 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 25% | Lyon 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.73 xG and Lyon 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.077 / defence 0.814 | Lyon attack 0.827 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.185. Lyon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Rennes games / 12 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 56% | Draw 30% | Lyon 14%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Lyon 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 17% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 56% | Draw 30% | Lyon 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Rennes 1.73 / Lyon 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.077 / def 0.814 | Lyon attack 0.827 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Rennes (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Lyon xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Lyon kick off?
Rennes vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lyon?
Rennes 4 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Rennes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lyon part of?
Rennes vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 56% chance of winning, Lyon a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rennes and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Lyon in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Lyon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rennes's attack at 1.08x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.83x) against Rennes's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
56%
1.78
30%
3.33
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.53
0.80
Lyon xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
40.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Rennes and 0.80 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 3L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Rennes against 1.58 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lyon's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.67 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 75%.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Lyon have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lyon away?
Rennes's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.40 PPG; Lyon away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lyon in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 4-1 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rennes
0
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 6, Lyon have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lyon 4-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Lyon?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Rennes) and 60% (Lyon) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Rennes) and 60% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rennes's recent matches and 60% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Rennes's recent games and 60% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Lyon tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lyon in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Lyon 4-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.73 xG and Lyon 0.80 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Lyon attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 56% | Draw 30% | Lyon 14%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 25%, Lyon 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.58 PPG, Lyon 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.