Rennes 6-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Bordeaux in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 16 January 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park.
Bordeaux (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Bordeaux have posted 2W 4D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.11 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Rennes. A 0.70 PPG lead over Bordeaux (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rennes 0W, Bordeaux 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 40% and Bordeaux 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 40% | Bordeaux 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.29 xG and Bordeaux 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.228 / defence 0.975 | Bordeaux attack 1.035 / defence 1.690. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.247. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.690 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Rennes games / 20 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 59% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 19%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Bordeaux 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 40% | Bordeaux 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 59% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Rennes 2.29 / Bordeaux 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.228 / def 0.975 | Bordeaux attack 1.035 / def 1.690 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Rennes (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bordeaux xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Rennes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Bordeaux?
Rennes 6 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Rennes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Bordeaux part of?
Rennes vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 59% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rennes and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Rennes 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Rennes and Bordeaux in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.23) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.03x) against Rennes's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.62
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.55
1.26
Bordeaux xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
2%
52.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Rennes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Rennes and 1.26 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Bordeaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 9W 4D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 3W 8D 9L from 20 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rennes are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bordeaux.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (6W 0D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.50 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 80%.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 games (1.55 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Bordeaux away?
Rennes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.00 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Rennes or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rennes
1
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Rennes have won 1, Bordeaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2022, when Rennes 6-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Bordeaux?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 33%, Bordeaux 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Rennes and 89% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Rennes's games and 78% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Rennes's matches and 89% of Bordeaux's.
Do Rennes and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Bordeaux 6-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.29 xG and Bordeaux 1.26 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Bordeaux attack 1.03 / defence 1.69, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 59% | Draw 22% | Bordeaux 19%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 40%, Bordeaux 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bordeaux's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.