Reims 1-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reims at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reims face Montpellier.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Montpellier at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 1 (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Reims — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Reims have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Reims are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Montpellier have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Montpellier away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reims 1.00 PPG, Montpellier 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Reims, 1 for Montpellier and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Reims 3–1 Montpellier — a Reims win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 54% versus Montpellier 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 49% | Montpellier 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.18 xG and Montpellier 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.826 / defence 0.885 | Montpellier attack 0.962 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.297. Data: built from Reims's last 67 games and Montpellier's last 67.
Result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.72 | Draw 3.29 | Montpellier 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Montpellier's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Montpellier 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Reims 1.18 / Montpellier 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.826 / def 0.885 | Montpellier attack 0.962 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Reims (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Montpellier xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Montpellier FAQs
What time does Reims vs Montpellier kick off?
Reims vs Montpellier kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Reims 1 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Reims vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Montpellier part of?
Reims vs Montpellier is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 37% chance of winning, Montpellier a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Reims and Montpellier will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Reims vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 67 games and Montpellier's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.29
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Reims xG
Total xG
2.29
1.10
Montpellier xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Montpellier Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Reims and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Reims and 1.10 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Reims have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 23W 22D 22L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Montpellier's form line: 23W 15D 29L from 67 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.36 PPG, Montpellier on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 9D 10L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 13W 4D 16L from their last 33 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.51 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
Reims (Home) vs Montpellier (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Current Season
Montpellier
Current Season
❓ Reims vs Montpellier Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 23W 15D 29L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Montpellier away?
Reims's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.55 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Reims or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Montpellier in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Reims's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Reims
5
Draws
2
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Montpellier H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Montpellier?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 3, Montpellier have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Montpellier last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Reims 1-1 Montpellier.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Montpellier?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 48%, Montpellier 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Reims) and 54% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Montpellier in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Montpellier Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Montpellier matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Reims's recent matches and 46% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Montpellier matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Montpellier matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Reims's recent matches and 82% of Montpellier's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Montpellier defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.18 xG and Montpellier 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Montpellier attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 37% | Draw 30% | Montpellier 33%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 49%, Montpellier 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Montpellier's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.36 PPG, Montpellier 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 30
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →