Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes.
Le Havre (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Le Havre managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 70% and Le Havre 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 63% | Le Havre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.053 / defence 0.839 | Le Havre attack 0.853 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.219. Data: 46 Paris Saint Germain games / 46 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 50% | Le Havre 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.65 / Le Havre 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.053 / def 0.839 | Le Havre attack 0.853 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Le Havre xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance of winning, Le Havre a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Record (4 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 3W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.05) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.85x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.08
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Le Havre xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
26.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 0.87 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 34W 9D 3L from 46 games, a 2.41 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 24L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 18W 3D 1L from 22 games — 2.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.15 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Le Havre in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 34W 9D 3L in their last 46 games (2.41 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 9D 24L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.59 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 64%, Le Havre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Paris Saint Germain) and 50% (Le Havre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Le Havre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 59% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 50% of Le Havre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 3-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 63%, Le Havre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Le Havre's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.