Nice 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Strasbourg travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022, 16:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Strasbourg have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Strasbourg's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Nice) versus 1.50 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nice, 1 for Strasbourg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 41% versus Strasbourg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 49% | Strasbourg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.48 xG and Strasbourg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.002 / defence 0.964 | Strasbourg attack 0.892 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.409. Data: 39 Nice games / 39 Strasbourg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nice 42% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 30%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Strasbourg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nice 60% | Strasbourg 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 42% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Nice 1.48 / Strasbourg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.002 / def 0.964 | Strasbourg attack 0.892 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Nice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Strasbourg xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Strasbourg kick off?
Nice vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Nice 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Nice vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Strasbourg part of?
Nice vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 42% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nice and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Strasbourg?
Record (2 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 1 | Strasbourg 1W.
What form are Nice and Strasbourg in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.00) and Strasbourg's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.56
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nice xG
Total xG
2.70
1.21
Strasbourg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nice and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nice and 1.21 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 8D 11L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Strasbourg sit at 1.62 PPG from 39 outings (17W 12D 10L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Strasbourg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.74 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 10W 4D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Strasbourg have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.56 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Strasbourg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Strasbourg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Strasbourg away?
Nice's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.79 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Nice or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Strasbourg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Strasbourg 3-1 Nice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Strasbourg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Strasbourg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Nice) and 37% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Strasbourg in 37%; Nice have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nice's recent matches and 47% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Nice's recent games and 37% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 2, as Nice and Strasbourg drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.48 xG and Strasbourg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Strasbourg attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nice 42% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 30%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 49%, Strasbourg 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.74 PPG, Strasbourg 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.